Psychic Oscar Prediction Contest

[rolotomasi99]

On a general note, I think Atonement is very Oscar-friendly and will be seen in multiple categories including Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, etc.

well, i watched the trailer (which is incredible), and i would say ATONEMENT will be another beautifully made film which screams oscar-bait, but in the end gets completely ignored by the academy (like THE PAINTED VEIL, THE WHITE COUNTESS, THE MERCHANT OF VENICE, VANITY FAIR, THE HOUSE OF MIRTH, etc.). i eagerly await seeing it, but it does not seem like a film that will be sweeping the oscars. just my thoughts.

[Penelope]

I think Atonement is very Oscar-friendly and will be seen in multiple categories including ... Best Supporting Actor....

James McAvoy in Supporting? No way. I know Best Actor is a tough list for rising actors to get on to, but I can't imagine there's anyway they could conceivably consider him Supporting -- unless there was a MAJOR rewrite of the novel -- and from the looks of the trailer, that just doesn't seem to be the case. I know there's a regrettable trend in recent years of jockeying Lead roles into Support, but it really has got to stop.

[flipp525]

Rolo, a couple comments...

C.S Moreno is undoubtedly the lead of Love in the Time of Cholera. I'd replace her with Garai or Redgrave from Atonement or one of the Evening girls in the supporting category. On a general note, I think Atonement is very Oscar-friendly and will be seen in multiple categories including Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, etc.

Is Reservation Road Jennifer Connelly's annual placeholder? She always drops off it seems.

[rolotomasi99]

there are like three different threads about our early predictions. i guess here is as good a place as any.

BEST PICTURE

The Golden Age

Charlie Wilson's War

Love In The Time Of Cholera

The Kite Runner

There Will Be Blood

DIRECTOR

Charlie Wilson's War

Love In The Time Of Cholera

The Kite Runner

Lust, Caution

There Will Be Blood

ADAPTED

Love In The Time Of Cholera

The Kite Runner

Charlie Wilson's War

There Will Be Blood

Youth Without Youth

ORIGINAL

The Savages

My Blueberry Nights

Lust, Caution

Honeydripper

Lions For Lambs

L. ACTOR

Javier Bardem - Love In The Time Of Cholera
Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Joaquin Phoenix - Reservation Road
Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages

L. ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - The Golden Age
Laura Linney - The Savages
Meryl Streep - Rendition
Natalie Portman - The Other Boleyn Girl
Julie Christie - Away From Her

S. ACTOR

Clive Owen - The Golden Age
Mark Ruffalo - Reservation Road
Ciaran Hinds - There Will Be Blood
Willem Dafoe - The Walker
Peter Sarsgaard - Rendition

S. ACTRESS

Catalino Sandino Moreno - Love In The Time Of Cholera
Scarlett Johansson - The Other Boleyn Girl
Jennifer Connelly - Reservation Road
Giovanna Mezzogiorno - Love In The Time Of Cholera
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

EDITING

Charlie Wilson's War

American Gangster

Youth Without Youth

3:10 To Yuma

There Will Be Blood

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Golden Age

There Will Be Blood

Love In The Time Of Cholera

Lust, Caution

Sweeney Todd

SET

The Golden Age

The Other Boleyn Girl

Sweeney Todd

Love In The Time Of Cholera

The Golden Compass

COSTUME

The Golden Age

The Other Boleyn Girl

Sweeney Todd

Love In The Time Of Cholera

Lust, Caution

SCORE

The Golden Age

Love In The Time Of Cholera

Youth Without Youth

The Kite Runner

Lust, Caution

SOUND

Pirates Of The Caribbean 3

Spiderman 3

The Order Of The Phoenix

Sweeney Todd

3:10 To Yuma

SOUND EDITING

Pirates Of The Caribbean 3

300

Spiderman 3

3:10 To Yuma

Transformers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Spiderman 3

Pirates Of The Caribbean 3

Transformers

MAKE-UP

The Golden Age

Sweeney Todd

Pirates Of The Caribbean 3

[anonymous1980]

I'm going to officially close this contest. I shall file your predictions for the future. Hopefully, I won't forget them.

[OscarGuy]

Hudson's character was put in the "Supporting" category of Featured Actress at the Tony's. The Zeta-Jones role is worth considering.

Jennifer Holliday was nominated (and won) for LEAD Actress in a Musical (nominated alongside Sheryl Lee Ralph in the Beyonce role). Both Chita Rivera and Bebe Neuwirth (who both played Velma in the Broadway stage) got nominated in LEAD Actress at the Tonys.

My bad. I thought I read somewhere that Holliday was pushed to Featured.

[Big Magilla]

The main character in Chicago is Roxie Hart. Although Velma Kelly is almost as important, if you're going to position it so that the two actresses playing those parts do not compete in the same category, then it makes sense to move the actress playing Velma to support. In Dreamgirls the characters of Deena and Effie are equally important, but when one is played by a name star and the other by a newcomer, it is understandable that the producers would delegate the newcomer to support.

Relegating the leading female character in Sweeney Todd to support makes absolutely no sense, especially when played by an established star with a previous best actress nomination, unless the film version completely changes the story to the point where she is off the screen a lot more than she was off stage in the original. They can't do that without completely changing the concept of the show, in which case they would also either have to jettison some of her songs or have them sung by other characters, which again makes no sense.

As written, Mrs. Lovett has three solos to Sweeney's one. They sing seven songs together eitther as duets or with other people. He sings five songs with other people and she sings two including the show's best known song, Not While I'm Around. That's 13 songs for him and 12 for her, far more than the ladies of Chicago and Dreamgirls combined. No way in hell is she a supporting player.

[anonymous1980]

Hudson's character was put in the "Supporting" category of Featured Actress at the Tony's. The Zeta-Jones role is worth considering.

Jennifer Holliday was nominated (and won) for LEAD Actress in a Musical (nominated alongside Sheryl Lee Ralph in the Beyonce role). Both Chita Rivera and Bebe Neuwirth (who both played Velma in the Broadway stage) got nominated in LEAD Actress at the Tonys.

[OscarGuy]

There is a huge difference in the Hudson role.

Hudson's character was put in the "Supporting" category of Featured Actress at the Tony's. The Zeta-Jones role is worth considering.

I hope they don't jettison the role to a supporting one...

[anonymous1980]

I still think it's folly to put Bonham Carter in the supporting field. The producers of the film would be stupid to put such a powerhouse role there and would be going against decades of positioning.

I might actually be updating my predictions as well...not sure.

You can make the same argument for Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls and Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago.

[Big Magilla]

I think if the nominations were made today, Away From Her would clean up, but we have a long way to go. It will be interesting to see if the momentum holds.

[OscarGuy]

I still think it's folly to put Bonham Carter in the supporting field. The producers of the film would be stupid to put such a powerhouse role there and would be going against decades of positioning.

I might actually be updating my predictions as well...not sure.

[anonymous1980]

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Away from Her
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd***
Youth Without Youth

BEST DIRECTOR
Joe Wright, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd***
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Francis Ford Coppola, Youth Without Youth

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle, Talk to Me
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd***
Joaquin Phoenix, Reservation Road

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cottilard, La Vie En Rose
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Keira Knightley, Atonement***

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Philip Bosco, The Savages***
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Clive Owen, The Golden Age
Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her
Mark Ruffalo, Reservation Road

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emily Blunt, Charlie Wilson's War
Helena Bonham-Carter, Sweeney Todd***
Romola Garai, Atonement
Ellen Page, An American Crime
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Margot at the Wedding
Michael Clayton***
Ratatouille
The Savages
Talk to Me

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away From Her***
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Youth Without Youth

[Big Magilla]

Remember tomorrow is the deadline for initial submissions.

All this still seems too early to me, although several themes are emerging. Loss in war seems the predominent theme this year - in the end some will survive, others will fail but who knows now whether Charlie Wilson's War will prevail over Lions for Lambs, In the Valley of Elah or The Last Full Measure.

Historical epcis abound, but The Golden Age still sounds like too much of a re-make of The Virgin Queen to be taken seriously, yet Blanchett and Morton command attention at this point so despite my misgivings I've nodded them temporarily. On the other hand. I still can't bring myself to take Tim Burton's film of Sweeney Todd seriously on any level.

I think the film most being overlooked right now is The Kite Runner, but we shall see.

[OscarGuy]

I have my first predictions done, but as it's part of my site, you'll just have to wait until May...

Suffice it to say, I think the big winner may be Charlie Wilson's War.

My predictions should be up today. I'll update this posting when they are (and even lock them in in my original entry below.

But that will likely be after 5:30p central.