Atonement
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson
Tim Burton
Tony Gilroy
Sidney Lumet
Sean Penn
This at least needs an explanation.
My thinking here was that Atonement and Juno were seen as plausible best picture nominees, but that they would not be strong enough to gain support for best director. I was right about Atonement, wrong about Juno. And I thought that Sweeney Todd was too different to make it into best picture, but that maybe Burton would be recognized for his career and creative work on the film. I added Lumet as a sentimental vote for very good work on a film that had no chance to be nominated for best picture.
I wasn't far off in my picture predictions, with Into the Wild replaced by expected nominee No Country for Old Men. I thought maybe the unusual nature of the film might turn off some voters.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
Akash wrote:I altered my Best Actress picks -- Laura Linney is out, Amy Adams is in. I'll kick myself tomorrow if the lovely Linney makes it. Oh and I'd forgotten that they announce Foreign Film and Animated Film live too, so I added those.
Bog wrote:I do not believe Blanchett deserves a nomination, but count me on the side of thinking it's a shame that a film's perception or wide critical opinion/appeal has anything to do with an individual performance. The fact that it seems to be a consensus that performances in widely panned or "bad" films should not be considered seems incorrect. It is not necessarily mutually exclusive.
We were discussing why she's being perceived by so many people as a strong candidate for an Oscar nomination. We weren't debating the merits of her performance. But since you asked -- her performance was also crap.
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will be Blood
I still think Atonement has a good shot, as does Diving Bell. It’s a seven horse race.
Director
Julien Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Jason Reitman - Juno
The Coen Brothers - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Actor
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
Frank Langella – Starting Out in the Evening
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
I’ve come close to throwing in Josh Brolin, giving four acting nods to No Country for Old Men. I could see it, but instead I’ve gone with Langella as my wtf choice.
Actress
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cottilard – La vie en rose
Anjelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno
As Sabin has pointed out, Linney’s failure to show up anywhere significant to date is the only thing against her. The strikes against Blanchett, Knightley and Adams are just as big, so I go with my heart.
Supporting Actor
Paul Dano – There Will Be Blood
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
I really can see Affleck missing. He probably won’t, but if he does, Dano – who’s buzz seems to have quadrupled at just the right time – will be the beneficiary. My greatest, deepest fear right now is a snub for Holbrook.
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Kelly MacDonald – No Country for Old Men
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
A Blanchett shut-out would please me greatly, but looks virtually impossible, alas. I still have my fingers crossed for a Vanessa Redgrave late showing.
Original Screenplay
Eastern Promises
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
The Savages
Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Lust, Caution
There Will Be Blood
Editing
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will be Blood
Art Direction
Atonement
Lust, Caution
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will be Blood
Costume Design
Atonement
Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Hairspray
Lust, Caution
Sweeney Todd
Sound
3:10 to Yuma
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Sound Editing
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers
Makeup
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
La vie en rose
Sweeney Todd
Visual Effects
300
I am Legend
Transformers
Original Score
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Lust, Caution
Ratatouille
Original Song
‘Falling Slowly’ (Once)
‘Grace is Gone’ (Grace is Gone)
‘Guaranteed’ (Into the Wild)
‘Lyra’ (The Golden Compass)
‘That’s How You Know’ (Enchanted)
Foreign Language Film
12
The Counterfeiters
Days of Darkness
The Unknown Woman
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation
I do not believe Blanchett deserves a nomination, but count me on the side of thinking it's a shame that a film's perception or wide critical opinion/appeal has anything to do with an individual performance. The fact that it seems to be a consensus that performances in widely panned or "bad" films should not be considered seems incorrect. It is not necessarily mutually exclusive.
I agree cam. I really don't know why Blanchett is a strong contender when her film was a critical and commercial stinker. I think it's more of a lack of a strong alternative and to me it comes down to Adams or Linney.
And actually, why isn't Adams seen as strong a contender as Blanchett? Sure she didn't get in at SAG, but she has a Globe nomination, critical adulation and box office success. That should at least put her fairytale princess in the same category as Blanchett's overblown queen.
Well we will see tomorrow morning. I think Steph has covered all her bases! :laugh:
Although I am known not to favour Blanchett, I do think a nomination in Best Actress would be ridiculous. The film was roundly panned, and her first Elizabeth, with that dank and smoky-dreary photography , stank. Elizabeth I came into fashion--she hit the Oscars as Judi Dench, too--then she went out again, not before Elizabeth Redux came onto the scene. The film has 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. No one liked it! Why the fuck would she be nominated? Even Crash with 76%, although not in the top 100 films reviewed that year, is more than double that.
But, think of Butterfield 8. That film neither deserved a mention or a win for actress.
I altered my Best Actress picks -- Laura Linney is out, Amy Adams is in. I'll kick myself tomorrow if the lovely Linney makes it. Oh and I'd forgotten that they announce Foreign Film and Animated Film live too, so I added those.
PICTURE The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The best roster of picture nominees I've ever seen at the Oscars. Well...since I've been alive anyway. And I actually should be grateful to the Animated Film category which keeps crap like Ratatouille where they belong, slumming next to things like Shrek and Bee Movie, and away from Best Picture. Sabin was right when he said in another thread that without this category, we'd probably have Best Picture nominations for The Fish Movie and The Rat Movie, which would be much worse. Oh, and I totally think The Simpsons Movie deserves to win over Ratatouille.
I can see Atonement or Into the Wild replacing Diving Bell or Juno (or both) but I'm going with the two films I thought were much better. Which, given Oscar history, should actually lead me to the opposite conclusion but whatever.
DIRECTOR The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Predictable I know, but unlike the past few years (Crash? Ray?? What the fuck???) predictable in a good way. I'm not as sold on Penn's movie as many of you are (sorry Aakash), but I don't hate it either (sorry Penelope). I'm pretty much in the middle. I like the performances but that's about it. It's no better or worse than Atonement for me; I think Eric is right (wow, I do remember everything you guys post!) that both Atonement and Into the Wild are mediocrities and I'd be happy if neither of them make it into Best Picture. But I like Sean Penn so I wouldn't mind seeing him here.
ACTOR
George Clooney
Ryan Gosling
Daniel Day-Lewis
Viggo Mortensen
Gordon Pinsent
Yes, yes I know I'm crazy but so what? I love Away from Her, it's my favorite film of the year, and I'm letting my bias get the better of me but what's a prediction list without a little balls right? I just can't believe anyone who actually saw this film wouldn't be moved by Pinsent's performance enough to give him the required amount of number one and number two votes to secure a nomination. There are a lot of older voters in the Academy and they could really create a surprise tomorrow morning by rewarding this deserving actor. I'm counting on that 2003 precedent where they pleasantly surprised us with Samantha Morton and let's face it, everyone but Day-Lewis and Clooney have more debits than credits going into this. (to crib Eric's Slant predictions, god I'm so lame)
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Angelina Jolie
Ellen Page
Unfortunately Aakash, I can't bet against the monarch here, so Cate is in. They seem to love double nominations for actresses they think are substantial (Holly Hunter, Ellen Thompson, Julianne Moore) and if she gets in, it will allow them to vote for Amy Ryan in supporting, with Cate's prize being the honor of joining the double dipping club - oh, and her Oscar from just three years ago. I hope there's an Oscar Show, just so I can see Angelina Jolie, though I wish she'd go without her husband. I'll never understand how someone so arresting can have such bland vanilla bean taste in men. I find it hard to believe Brad is satisfying her in any area.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Hal Holbrook
Tommy Lee Jones
Tom Wilkinson
I like Phillip Seymour Hoffman, but I can't really see any of these five not making it. What a wonderful year for supporting actors. Well, the ones who are ACTUALLY supporting anyway...
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Ruby Dee
Catherine Keener
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton
I can see Saoirse Ronan getting in over Ruby Dee or Tilda Swinton, but the former has sentiment and career respect on her side and the latter is one of our best character actresses who finally has Globe and SAG backing her for the same performance. So I think this one will match up with SAG perfectly. Oh wait, so do my Actor and Supporting Actor predictions. Uh oh. Has that ever happened before? Seems unlikely. I'm already thinking of nixing Blanchett in Actress and placing Hoffman somewhere. Damn them for both doing more than one movie this year! If only they'd stay put in one category!
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
I hate the Rat Movie but the writers are clearly Pixar fanboys. I'm tempted to replace Lars with Knocked Up, and don't they also usually go for at least one foreign film here? Ah well...
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Why not go all balls-out for Away From Her?
CINEMATOGRAPHY Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
I can see them going for Sweeney Todd (ugh) over Assassination or Diving Bell, but hopefully if they do it will be at Atonement's expense. I don't really care if Into the Wild makes it here or not because I'm not Aakash or Sabin.
EDITING The Bourne Ultimatum
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
I'm puzzled that the Bourne series keeps doing well in these circles but it got an Eddie nomination so there you go. No reason why I went with Sweeney Todd except that I think it will get some tech nominations and nothing major - kind of like Evita which hey, was also nominated here. I'd be shocked if any of the other three don't make it.
I must have been away too long, but where did this sudden love for Michael Clayton as Best Pic nominee come from? Last I remember, Clooney was the only prospect for this film, now it's widely predicted as a Best Pic nominee? Granted, I didn't get a chance to follow the precursors (and what with the Globes canceled, my whole enthusiasm has lagged), but this is surprising. I'm too scared to weigh in with my predictions now.
My picks for the announced categories. (Note: different from the Slant ones; here I'm going for a few no-guts-no-glory picks.)
BEST PICTURE
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac
BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Days of Darkness (Canada)
The Trap (Serbia)
12 (Russia)
The Unknown (Italy)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
BEST PICTURE
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (5 overall)
Into the Wild (10 overall)
Michael Clayton (6 overall)
No Country for Old Men (7 overall)
There Will Be Blood (7 overall)
BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
James McAvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Eastern Promises
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Gone Baby Gone
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
There Will Be Blood
BEST FILM EDITING
3:10 To Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
BEST ART DIRECTION
Across the Universe
Atonement
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd
BEST SCORE
3:10 To Yuma
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
Eastern Promises
The Kite Runner
BEST SONG
“Happy Working Song” from Enchanted
“Come So Far” from Hairspray
“Guaranteed” from Into the Wild
“Rise” from Into the Wild
“Falling Slowly” from Once
BEST SOUND MIXING
3:10 To Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
Transformers
BEST SOUND EDITING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
300
I Am Legend
Transformers
BEST MAKE-UP
300
Sweeney Todd
La Vie en Rose
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Counterfeiters; Austria
The Trap; Serbia
Days of Darkness; Canada
The Unknown; Italy
Mongol; Kazakhstan
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
PICTURE
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alternate: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Possible WTF?: Atonement
DIRECTOR
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Julien Schnabel
Into the Wild, Sean Penn
Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men, Coens
There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson
Alternate: Atonement, Joe Wright
Possible WTF?: Juno, Jason Reitman
ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises
Alternate: Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Possible WTF?: Matthieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Possible WTF?: Laura Linney, The Savages
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Possible WTF?: Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alternate: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Possible WTF?: Jennifer Garner, Juno
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac
Alternate: Away from Her
Possible WTF?: Atonement
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Alternate: Knocked Up
Possible WTF?: Eastern Promises
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Beaufort (Israel)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Days of Darkness (Canada)
Katyn (Poland)
The Trap (Serbia)
Alternate: The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil)
Possible WTF?: Mongol (Kazakhstan)
ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
Alternate: Bee Movie
Possible WTF?: Shrek the Third
