His situation does not compare to Jef Bridges in Starman, Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins, Don Ameche in Cocoon, Ian McKellan in Lord of the Rings, Sigourney Weaver in Aliens, Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean, Edmund Gwenn in Miracle on 34th Street or Cecil Kellaway in The Luck of the Irish, all of whom were esablished well-known performers when they were nominated and/or won for those roles.
So, tell me, how can you explain the fact that sylvester Stallone and John Travolta were nominated as newcomers?
Well I never said he was going to WIN an Oscar. I just said this could develop into something worth keeping an eye on in case the country is stricken with Superman-mania, and even then I said "it's way-out, but maybe, possibly..."
I'm less interested in the Superhero angle than I am the 'previously unknown' angle, and the Academy can be good to newcomers. Hilary Swank, anyone?
And next year the front-runner for Best Goddamned Cartoon Movie will be The Good German Shepherd.
Goya's Ghosts is not an obscure title. It's Milos Forman's first film since the godawful Man in the Moon. It's also his first screenplay since Valmont, which some consider a better version of he same story than Dangerous Liaisons.
The Czech film-maker has had a checkered career, but when he deals with historical subjects (Amadeus), persecution (One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest) and trials (The People vs. Larry Flynth) people take notice. Goya's Ghosts has all three plus religious controversy and the currently hot Natalie Portman. Where Portman fits in the equation as far as awards go I can't get a read, but Bardem and Skarsgard are always good and with seemingly no real contenders in the race other than Griffiths and Whitaker I do see a very strong possibility of the two being nominated for best actor. You can bet Forman and his co-screenwriter have written fireworks scenes for them to play and that Forman has directed them to a farethewell.
Superman Returns may get great reviews and be a box-office phenomenon but it's a quasi-remake, a quasi-sequel and stars a 27 year-old TV actor most people never heard of before. His situation does not compare to Jef Bridges in Starman, Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins, Don Ameche in Cocoon, Ian McKellan in Lord of the Rings, Sigourney Weaver in Aliens, Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean, Edmund Gwenn in Miracle on 34th Street or Cecil Kellaway in The Luck of the Irish, all of whom were esablished well-known performers when they were nominated and/or won for those roles.
The closest comparison one can make is Christopher Reeve in Superman and Superman II and Toby Maguire in Spider-Man 2, and neither of them were unknowns when they played those roles.
Superman Returns may make Routh a star, get him other roles and make him lots of money down the road, but win him an Oscar? I don't think so. He's more likely to be toasted by kryptonite before he's 30.
Penelope wrote:If Christopher Reeve couldn't get a nomination in the role--and I think he deserved one, for the 2nd one moreso than the first--I doubt Routh will be nominated, no matter how successful the film is.
And don't forget the smash hit Batman Begins which scored nada in the nominations...
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Here's what Everyone's Hero has: Dana Reeve. It's also a film that Christopher Reeve was working on before he died. Sounds like a nominee just on those points.
I didn't see Goya's Ghost on any release schedules, either. Besides, the title is so obscure that I don't see it as much of a contender by that fact alone. Titles are incredibly important in the face, and often make a good barometer.
BTW: Anyone notice that The Good German and The Good Shepherd are so similar in title that someone has to make a The Good German Shepherd joke at some point. If both are nominated, that would be a hysterical comparison.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Penelope wrote:If Christopher Reeve couldn't get a nomination in the role--and I think he deserved one, for the 2nd one moreso than the first--I doubt Routh will be nominated, no matter how successful the film is.
That was then. Today we have an Academy that will REWARD Russell Crowe for playing a robotic Conan the Barbarian as well as the brain-dead movie he starred in. So, anything is possible with these imbeciles.
Yeah, no actor is going to get nominated for playing a superhero. Fantasy is notoriously ignored by the Academy. They'd probably nominate Adam Sandler before they nominate Brandon Routh.
Having viewed the original again last night, I honestly think Reeve brought something to that character that no one else could. He was three-dimensional in a way superheroes rarely are. Too bad the Salkinds dumped the series after number three, and we got the mess that was "The Quest for Peace," killing all chances of Reeve's return to the character before his accident.
Also, Richard Donner's direction has been underrated over the years, I think. Having completed the first movie, and something like 70% of the second, he was fired. Interestingly -- and i'm sure you all already know -- Brando's scenes are from unused "Superman II" footage. In a picture-book called Hollywood: 60 Great Years, it says that Brando used legal means to prevent use of this footage because he felt he had only signed on for one film.
As far as I can tell off the top of my head, only Sigourney Weaver (Aliens) and Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) fall into the category of fantasy performances that got nominated in leads, even if one was a science-fiction blockbuster and the other a comedy-adventure blockbuster.
This means I'm not counting Edmund Gwenn (Miracle on 34th Street) or Cecil Calloway (Luck of the Irish), in supporting.
The World Trade Center is an iffy proposition. It could be another Platoon or JFK for Oliver Stone, or it could be his Armageddon (pun intended).
Or it could be U-Turn, which in my opinion was his absolute worst movie that I've seen.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
If Christopher Reeve couldn't get a nomination in the role--and I think he deserved one, for the 2nd one moreso than the first--I doubt Routh will be nominated, no matter how successful the film is.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
The advance reviews of Superman Returns have been pretty great so far, and Brandon Routh in particular has been singled out. If this becomes the box office smash of the year, as I think it will, I suspect much of the media coverage will focus on this new guy who's "capturing America's hearts". I know it's a way-out-there prediction, but maybe... possibly... a Best Actor nom for Routh?
I always find it difficult to predict the race this far ahead; with so many films yet unseen, everything is mostly guesswork . . .
. . . but I will comment on the chances of a film we have seen: Cars.
I will be flabbergasted if the film is not nominated for Best Animated Feature. Sure, the film only scored A-/B+ grades and won't make AS much as Finding Nemo or The Incredibles. So it won't nab a Screenplay nod. But with largely positive notices and healthy box office (what DO people think is so disappointing about its performance???), an Animated Feature slot for this lovely film is in the bag. It's certainly a stronger contender than the films you have shortlisted.
Over the Hedge did not receive nearly as strong reviews, and is hardly a box office smash. I suspect it will be forgotten by year's end.
A Scanner Darkly looks fantastic, but after the Waking Life snub, it remains uncertain how the Academy will react to Linklater's latest. (Hopefully they'll feel incredibly ashamed about snubbing Waking Life and make sure this gets a nod.)
I haven't heard anything about Everyone's Hero. Perhaps it's a strong contender, but with zero buzz right now (as far as I'm aware of, although I admit I could be ignorant), I wouldn't shortlist it before Cars.
It's a little too early for me to predict with any degree of certainty what will happen other than my already stated vibes about Flags of Our Fathers and Dreamgirls, but I do have a few thoughts.
In addition to The History Boys, the most obvious non-mentioned contender is Goya's Ghosts.
The Good German sounds like a winner for Steven Soderbergh after years of indifferent projects, and sounds enough like The Third Man to pique interest, but will it? Goya's Ghosts and The History Boys will also be vying for the history/nostalgia vote.
I also like the premise of De Niro's The Good Shepherd, but De Niro's direction has been very diffident in the past, so I'm taking a wait and see attitude with that one.
The World Trade Center is an iffy proposition. It could be another Platoon or JFK for Oliver Stone, or it could be his Armageddon (pun intended). The Departed, as I've said before, is another iffy propositon. The film it's based on is very dark, darker even than Scorsese's usually dark films, and could go either way.
Moving Black Dahlia to the present day makes no sense. Either tell the real story or make it based on the original story as countless TV shows haved done or leave it alone. I don't see it as having any awards potential. Remaking All the King's Men is such a bad idea that I don't see that film turning up anywhere except on 10 worst lists.
I see Flags of Our Fathers, Dreamgirls, Goya's Ghosts, The History Boys and either The Departed, The World Trade Center, The Good German or remotely The Good Shepard as the main contenders at this point.
Nancy Meyers has worked wonders for Diane Keaton's career so maybe she can do the same for Cameron Diaz and Kate Winslet, the latter of whom is doing quite fine on her own, so both could be nominated for The Holiday though Winslet would seem to have a better shot with the dramatic Little Children.
As I've said before, The Painted Veil seems too old fashioned to make Naomi Watts a serious contender. Cate Blanchett finally got her second nomination and her Oscar just last year, so I don't think they'll be in any hurry to nominate her again so soon for either Notes on a Scandal or Babel, though the former seems more likely.
Helen Mirren in The Queen is an inspired prediction. Oscar voters do love their queens. Speaking of which, leaving Beyonce Knowles in Dreamgirls off the short list, is a mistake.
Oscar voters can't resist actresses playing well-known real life characters either, which make Mirren and Beyonce (playing a thinly disguised Diana Ross) double threats. Add in Renee Zellwger as Beatrix Potter in Miss Potter and Anne Hathaway as Jane Austen in Becoming Jane and Winslet in either Little Children or The Holiday, and you could have the most interesting group of contenders in the best actress category in years.
I can't see the Academy nominating the arrogant Russell Crowe until he mellows considerably, much less giving him a second best actor award this soon. Nor do I see Jamie Foxx getting a nod for Dreamgirls unless the film's (anticipated) success pulls in everyone connected with it. Toby Jones suffers in the shadow of last year's winner playing the same character (Truman Capote) in Infamous (been there, done that?)
Rotund Richard Griffiths evoking fond memories of Charles Laughton in The History Boys seems like the safest bet for a British accented actor this year.
Other non-Hollywoodites who could pick up nominations are Javier Bardem and Stellan Skarsgard for Goya's Ghosts. It's been a long time since we've had two lead actors in the same film whose performances are likely to be seen as a dead heat thereby cancelling them both out a la Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole in Becket. Still, they may be strong enough to merit nominations.
On the home front, Forest Whitaker is most likely for The Last King of Scotland. Among Hollywood's golden boys I think the busy Matt Damon in The Good Shepherd has the best shot, followed by Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed and Ryan Phillippe in Flags of Our Fathers, but it seems unlikely that all three would be nominated in the same year. Nominations for Damon, Bardem, Skarsgard and a horse race between Griffiths and Whitaker for the win could be just what the doctor order to put the bloom back in Oscar's sagging cheeks.
Among directors, Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers), Scorsese and Bill Condon (Dreamgirls) are the obvious candidates to which I'd add Milos Forman (Goya's Ghosts) and Nicholas Hyutner (The History Boys). Oliver Stone (World Trade Center) seem a more likely spoiler than Robert Altman (A Prairie Home Companion) whose film is likely to be forgotten by year's end. Soderbergh (The Good German) and De Niro (The Good Shepherd) are long shots.
The supporting categories are still a bit vague, though Adam Beach in Flags of Our Fathers, Eddie Murphy in Deamgirls and perennial loser Albert Finney in A Good Year seem like safe bets for supporting actor.
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls and Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal are the only supporting actresses I can see thourhg the haze at this time.
