The Hopefuls

[Sonic Youth]

But I didn't list any films.

Second, Batman Begins was dog ####. (I know, I know. But I had to throw that in.)

Third, I made no claims for Best Film, Directing or Writing, so I'm not going to engage in discussions of those categories. Just Best Actor. And, to repeat myself for a second time, I acknowledged from the outset that it's probably a way-out chance. It's quite amusing how a tentative suggestion has led to so many people vigorously trying to tamp it down.

Fourth, back to the dog ####. Whatever reviews and box office Batman Begins recieved, one thing it did NOT have was unanimous singling out of a cast member. What's caught my eye is that the new Superman has just that very thing. Closest filmic simulacrum? Not close enough for me.

The closest comparison I can think of that would not favor Routh? Leonardo DiCaprio for Titanic. There's a mega-blockbuster whose much praised leading man was snubbed (according to some... not by me, though.)

[OscarGuy]

Sonic, it really doesn't matter if we wait-and-see. None of the films you list was even remotely comparative to Superman. There is only ONE film in the recent memory that can even compare and that's Batman Begins. Batman Begins, like Superman, was a re-invisioning of an entire franchise. It became a huge success. Critics seemed to love it. Comic Book fans, initially put off by the concept, considered it as good as, if not better than, the original. No one thought its start could outdo the original Batman and yet many think he was better.

Every single one of these comparisons balance with your thoughts on the film. Batman Begins was virtually ignored by the Academy and, regardless of the amazing support the film had, it didn't materialize anything for directing, writing OR acting. Superman Returns will befall the same fate. The only REAL comparison goes to show that its chances are dreadful. Now, I've never equivocated on the precise reason it won't go the direction you think it will. This has always been my comparison. I don't care if it's a comic book film, a newcomer, a fantasy film or whatever. I will always compare the film to its closest filmic simulacrum.

[Sonic Youth]

We keep repositioning those goal posts, don't we? He's not going to get nominated because it's fantasy, and the Academy is prejudiced against fantasy films. But it's been done. Then, he's not going to be nommed because he's an up-from-nowhere newcomer. That's been done. Then, he's not going to be nominated, because it's a comic-book character. That's been done. Finally, he's not going to be nominated because he's a newcomer portraying a comic book character in a fantasy film. NOW we've hit upon the right combination. We've finally found a round hole this square peg won't go through.

And Lord of the Rings wasn't supposed to win because the Academy is so anti-fantasy, and Chicago wasn't supposed to win because the Academy has been so anti-musical for decades, and Million Dollar Baby wasn't supposed to win because of all the hurdles it set up for itself in the precursor race, and foreign language performances aren't supposed to win and rap songs aren't supposed to win, and so on. Yes, the obstacles are all there. Can't we at least wait until after the film opens and we can gauge whether he has even a chance of overcoming all these obstacles first?

[Damien]

as for "dreamgirls," is it just me or does this movie look silly? i love bill condon. "gods and monsters" and "kinsey" are two of my favorite films, and i think it was his contributions to "chicago" that made it a success (not the director's). however, all the previews i have seen for "dreamgirls" makes it look as cheesy and stilted as "the producers." the superstar (beyonce) and the contest winner (jennifer hudson) may be good singers, but in a movie musical i still think it is better to have good actors that can sing well, then good singers that can act well. it may not seem like it, but there is a difference. it may do well in the artistic categories, but in the dramatic areas it might not have what it takes.

Trust me. Having seen a rough cut of Dreamgirls, the film is anything but cheesy and stilted. This movie is very dynamic and fluid, not only in comparison to the pathetic Producers and Rent but even when stacked up against Chicago.

Dreamgirls is going to be acknowledged as the best musical since Victor/Victoria.

[Penelope]

how many performers from a comic book adaptation have been nominated?

I can only think of one right off the bat: Al Pacino in Dick Tracy.

If you count graphic novels as comic books then I guess you can include Paul Newman in Road to Perdition.

and william hurt from "a history of violence."

And notice that they were all veterans. Honestly, I would be absolutely shocked if Routh were to be nominated, not only because he's a newcomer but because of how beloved Reeve was in the role.

[rolotomasi99]

i cannot believe anyone here is actually thinking "the departed" is not going to make it into the top five for best picture. in my mind it is a frontrunner to win, with its only competition being "flags of our fathers." a scorsese/eastwood showdown again seems impossible, but just imagine the headlines it will grab. i actually think this could be the film to win it for scorsese, both picture and director awards.
after the public lashing that the academy got for going with "crash" over "brokeback mountain," we might actually get to see a more courageous group of voters. maybe the younger members will finally take the reins of the outfit, and not let the older (conservative) voters be the main voice of the institution.
now, i am not saying that the academy is suddenly going to listen to everything the critics have to say, but i think we will see some interesting choices.
from everything i have read and looking at the cast, i would say "the departed" could be scorsese's best film since "goodfellas." as much as i have liked his costume drama, epics ("the age of innocence," "kundun," "gangs of new york," "the aviator") i have missed the grittier vision of the world ("taxi driver," "raging bull," "goodfellas"). "the departed" looks like it has the chance to bring that gritty world to the mainstream, with not one but two hot, young movie stars. i am not saying it will break $100 million, but it could actually do pretty well with critics, audiences, and the academy -- the trifecta that has alluded scorsese for so long.

as for scorsese's biggest competition, eastwood's "flags of our fathers" might be patriotic clap-trap in the hands of lesser directors (robert zemeckis or ron howard); but with the one-two punch of "mystic river" and "million dollar baby," eastwood is becoming one of our best directors working today -- better late than never. i foresee great things from this film. his cast is obscure but not untested. i imagine more of a "saving private ryan" taste of war than "platoon," but i do not think he will pump up the violins to tug at our heartstrings. no, this will be a balancing act for the conservative maverick. he will present us with a gripping tale of heroism without making war look like a good thing. however, i agree that there is just no way that he could take a third director award. even if the film wins picture, i can only see the award going to scorsese. wishful thinking? perhaps, but not impossible. oh, i also hope that the writers will dole out some justice and not nominate paul haggis' screenplay for the film, which is very possible since the adapted screenplay field seems pretty packed at this point.

as for "dreamgirls," is it just me or does this movie look silly? i love bill condon. "gods and monsters" and "kinsey" are two of my favorite films, and i think it was his contributions to "chicago" that made it a success (not the director's). however, all the previews i have seen for "dreamgirls" makes it look as cheesy and stilted as "the producers." the superstar (beyonce) and the contest winner (jennifer hudson) may be good singers, but in a movie musical i still think it is better to have good actors that can sing well, then good singers that can act well. it may not seem like it, but there is a difference. it may do well in the artistic categories, but in the dramatic areas it might not have what it takes.

i have high hopes for both "the good german" and "the good shepherd." hopefully, soderbergh has gotten all that mainstream fluff and experimental stuff out of his system and is once again ready to make challenging and engaging films. the cast and premise are great, so it all rests on him. as for deniro, while his first film "bronx tale" was cliche ridden and stilted, it showed a director with potential. just like how mel gibson went from the boring "the man without a face" to the visually stunning (though still dramatically lacking) "braveheart," i think we will see deniro ready to finally spread his wings. again, another great premise and superb cast.

we have several costume dramas, but none are clear frontrunners. "marie-antoinette," "goya's ghost," and "the painted veil" all seem possibilities, but all could find themselves stuck in the cinematic categories. i still think the academy is going to find it hard to resist the call of "all the king's men." that film just screams oscar. sometimes that scream is heard ("finding neverland," "gladiator") and sometimes it is ignored ("the shipping news," "cold mountain"). other than being a remake, it has just such a great recipe for success. we will see. other than that, i can see no other films with clear chances for the big prize. of course, there are always those big surprises. the pattern has become films that are supposed to just show case a good performance that make it into the top five ("ray," "capote"). could "the last king of scotland" be that film? perhaps "fur" or "infamous." we shall see.

[rolotomasi99]

how many performers from a comic book adaptation have been nominated?

I can only think of one right off the bat: Al Pacino in Dick Tracy.

If you count graphic novels as comic books then I guess you can include Paul Newman in Road to Perdition.

and william hurt from "a history of violence."

[anonymous1980]

how many performers from a comic book adaptation have been nominated?

I can only think of one right off the bat: Al Pacino in Dick Tracy.

If you count graphic novels as comic books then I guess you can include Paul Newman in Road to Perdition.

[Penelope]

I think the key isn't that Superman is a fantasy film, but, rather, that it's a comic book adaptation; how many performers from a comic book adaptation have been nominated? Not even Michelle Pfeiffer in Batman Returns, which, at the time, many felt she was more deserving of a nomination for that film than for the same year's Love Field (I suspect she got the nod for Love Field because voters just couldn't seriously nominate her for a comic book film, even if they DID think she was better as Catwoman).

[Franz Ferdinand]

If you're going to throw horror into the mix, don't forget Fredric March in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

Hopkins and Foster for Silence Of The Lambs.

[Sonic Youth]

His situation does not compare to Jef Bridges in Starman, Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins, Don Ameche in Cocoon, Ian McKellan in Lord of the Rings, Sigourney Weaver in Aliens, Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean, Edmund Gwenn in Miracle on 34th Street or Cecil Kellaway in The Luck of the Irish, all of whom were esablished well-known performers when they were nominated and/or won for those roles.

So, tell me, how can you explain the fact that sylvester Stallone and John Travolta were nominated as newcomers?

Well, I'm discussiong newcomers, because that was my angle when I brought the whole thing up in the first place. John Travolta doesn't count because he was quite well known, starring in a very popular sitcom. I'm guessing Stallone was fairly unknown at the time, and his also having written the screenplay to Rocky gave him a leg up.

Looking over the last twenty years or so, most people who received nominations that would qualify as previously unknowns were either international actors - who would be mostly unknown to American voters, though not to movie-goers in their own countries (Shohreh Aghdashloo, Javier Bardem, and yeah, even Roberto Benigni would probably count); or children (Paquin, Osment, Castle-Hughes). There aren't too many recent English speaking out-of-nowhere nominees old enough to drive, but they exist. Swank, Emily Watson, maybe Samantha Morton. But none of them were in a mega budgeted blockbuster. Maybe Routh's being in a summer blockbuster and playing a superhero in an obstensible sequel means he doesn't have a chance. Maybe his soap opera background hurts him. I don't know. We shall see. But I'm still keeping an eye out to see the impact this Superman film has. And I'm looking forward to this film more than nearly any summer blockbuster in several years.

(Now watch. I'm going to hate this as much as Batman Begins.)

[rudeboy]

Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

And you missed Ellen Burstyn for The Exorcist.

[Big Magilla]

If you're going to throw horror into the mix, don't forget Fredric March in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

[anonymous1980]

Another actor nominated for a fantasy/sci-fi picture: Alec Guinness for Star Wars.

For the record, here are sci-fi/horror/fantasy performances that earned Oscar nods/wins (* = indicates winner):

Fredric March, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde*
Edmund Gwenn, Miracle on 34th Street*
Cecil Kellaway, Luck of the Irish
Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins*
Ruth Gordon, Rosemary's Baby*
Ellen Burstyn, The Exorcist
Linda Blair, The Exorcist
Jason Miller, The Exorcist
Sissy Spacek, Carrie
Piper Laurie, Carrie
Jeff Bridges, Starman
Alec Guinness, Star Wars
Melinda Dillon, Close Encounters of the Third Kind
Sigourney Weaver, Aliens
Don Ameche, Cocoon*
Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost*
Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense
Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich
Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

[OscarGuy]

Neither were nominated for Fantasy pictures. The discussion is over Fantasy pic acting nominations, not "new star" nominations. There's a huge difference. "Rocky" and "Saturday Night Fever" were far from the Fantasy genre.

Julie Andrews won an Oscar for her breakthrough role. It's not unheard of. Again, the question came up because of a Superman debate and whether fantasy performers get their fare share of kudos.